A prophet who shows the receipts
Fantasy drafts, DFS lineups and betting edges — each one with its projection, its edge and its confidence printed next to it. If it can't be measured, it isn't a pick, it's an opinion, and this site doesn't publish opinions.
Model has Detroit by 6.1. Market opened −4 and drifted on public Chicago money. Two of three injury flags cleared Friday.
Rendered from the same components the app ships — the numbers here are illustrative, because publishing made-up numbers as real ones is exactly what this product exists to not do.
Every number, next to its receipt
A live board built for the moment you're on the clock, with recommendations from a thousand simulated drafts — run between picks, never on the clock.
- snake order strip with your picks marked
- every pick lands on every screen live, no refresh
- entry round trips measured and shown — the room keeps its own latency receipts
- friends spectate the full board in real time
Player projections recovered from what prop markets actually pay, lineups assembled by a constraint solver and re-ranked by simulated slates.
- market-implied projections: the O/U line pins the median, alternates pin the tails
- cash builds chase floor, GPP builds chase ceiling — the objective is named
- every projection recorded before kickoff, scored after the games
- you upload the CSV yourself — the tool never touches your account
Devigged sharp consensus as the fair price, and every book price on the slate measured against it — the few that beat it surfaced, and an empty screen admitted to when nothing does.
- fair probabilities with the bookmaker overround removed
- book prices scored against fair, discounted where books disagree
- an empty best-bets screen is the normal, honest state
- it analyzes; it never places a bet
The warning labels are the product
Most tools hide their doubt. Here, every number carries its own — these are real banners from the app, and they cannot be turned off, softened, or buried. Beta testers meet exactly the warnings the person who built this meets.
Stale data says how stale it is. Thin markets are flagged as thin. An uncalibrated model says so, out loud, where the number is.
Fair questions
Is this betting advice?
No. Prophet Picks is an informational tool: it computes projections and market analysis and shows them with their uncertainty attached. It places no wagers, holds no funds, and guarantees nothing — the disclaimers say it plainly.
Can I join?
Only by invite. There is no signup and no waitlist — the allowlist is a short list of named friends. If you were invited, your email already opens the door; if you weren't, the person who sent you this link knows how to fix that.
Does it enter lineups or place bets for me?
Never. The DFS lab writes a DraftKings upload file and you upload it yourself; the betting desk logs orders you place elsewhere, by hand. Keeping the last step manual is a design rule, not a missing feature.
Where do the numbers come from?
Public play-by-play data (nflverse, CFBD), sportsbook odds feeds pulled politely inside hard monthly budgets, and models whose calibration is tested before they ship. Every projection is written down before kickoff and scored after — the record is part of the product.
What does it cost?
Nothing. This is a personal project shared with friends, not a business. Features change, data can be late, and the whole site can be down on a Sunday — that honesty is also on the label.
Prophet Picks is an informational tool. It places no wagers, enters no contests, and holds no funds. It is not affiliated with DraftKings, Yahoo, ProphetX, or any sportsbook or exchange. Betting-related information is for adults of legal age in jurisdictions where such activity is lawful. 21+. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Read the full disclaimers.